Looking for value in bets is the only viable betting strategy in the long term. When you consistently identify value in bookies' odds by comparing them with your own calculated probabilities, you significantly boost your chances of beating the bookies over a series of bets. In this article, we will explain how to calculate and detect value betting.
- 1 Best Betting Sites We Recommend for Value Betting i💫n 2024
- 2 Value Betting Software
- 3 How To Identify a Value Bet
- 4 Value Betting Coin Toss Example
- 5 What Is Gambling Value?
- 6 How To Calculate Expected Value(EV) in Betting
- 7 Expected Value & Variance
- 8 Other Strategies To Find Value in Betting
- 9 ThePuntersPage Final Say
- 10 FAQs
Best Betting Sites We Recommend for Value Betting in 2024
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Value Betting Software
Looking for a value betting app or bot? There are several software op𒁃tions that help you identify value bets, as listed 🦹below:
RebelBetting Review
RebelBetting offers downloadable software as well as a value betting app and a product for detecting arbitrage bets.
The software not only shows the day’s value bets but also provides an estimatio🎶n of their value, giving you the edge in your betting endeavours.
The tracker serves as a treasure trove of data, sparing you the hassle of creating endless Excel spreadsheets to track the data yourself. It consolidates all your bets in one single location, complete with graphs illustrating your winnings over tim🐟e. Moreover, you can keep a real-time tab on your account balances, making it the ultimate betting companion!
How does it work?
Simply click on the bet and the software will direct you to the specif💞ic bookie. It has a bet tracker that tracks your specific bets. The ♔video below explains how to use it:
The software looks for overpriced odds a🍎s a way to beat the bookmakers. It does this by essentially comparing odds and automatically detects arbitrage options, allowing you to bet on all outcomes and still make a profit.
The site has a proven yield on 2.5%, which is quite im🐓pressive, and has had millions of bets placed.
Of course, value bets do not stay around forever since odds are constantly being updated, so you will have to💯 log in regularly to check for the latest odds.
RebelBetting Pricing & Profit Guarantee
RebelBetting is moderately priced — at least for serious bettors with a decent bankroll. It costs £23 a month for the first three months or a total of £69. If you want the fu🐻ll package, RebelBetting Pro (includingꦿ both betting products) costs £43 a month for the first three months.
Best⭕ of all, they have a profit guarantee, meaning if you do not make a profit in the first month, you will get the next month free!
Trademate Sports Review
Trademate Spoꦡrts provides a valuable, user-friend🌊ly tool for detecting value bets.
How does it work?
A mes꧙sage will automatically pop up in your browser every time a value bet is detected. How Trademate detects these bets is a matter of secrecy (we suppose if you had a good strategy for detecting value bets, you would not share it too easily either!). However, as you can see from the video below, a lot comes from com💝paring odds at various bookies.
Trademate Free Trial
The best thing about Trademate is its one-month free trial, allowing you to identify bets and use the software to your advantage! We recommend it to🉐 both novice and seasoned punters🌳.
Smarkets Review
𓆉While it certainly isn’t your typical bookmaker, Smarkets has established itself as one of the world’s leading betting exchanges since its emergence in 2008.
How does it work?
Smarkets operates like 🌱any other betting exchange, although its 2% commission fees have widely been lauded as one of th🐻e lowest around. This bookie allows you to place back and lay bets. In the former, you're betting on an outcome to happen, while in the latter, you’re essentially betting on the outcome not happening.
Coral Review
There’s nothing particularly outstanding about Coral, but this bookmaker does everything wel🎃l. It’s regarded ꧃as an industry behemoth, and it’s no surprise that you can take advantage of a varied sportsbook with competitive odds.
How does it work?
ꦿ While the bookie doesn’t offer any particular tips or hacks in regard to value betting, it boasts supremely generous odds and a wide range of markets. While reviewing the bookie, I realised that there’s no overlooking Coral’s particularly generous football odds — they're among the very best around. I found this out by using the odds overround to calculate the consistency of their odds on football matches.
Moreover, new customers can take advantage of their excellent welcome offer. What’s not to like about Coral?
Betfred Review
♛ With over 50 years of tradition, Betfred is one of the UK’s oldest bookmakers. Like Coral, it nails the basics and is fundamentally sound. As a result, its sportsbook is broad, while you can access a litany of sportsbook promotions which cover an array of sports. I must also commend Betfred’s blog, which is superbly detailed and certainly worth checking out.
How does it work?
Betfred is another premier bookmaker that doesn’t offer anything in part🦩icular, but it features great odds and excellent promotions. What stands out in particular is the number of daily offers you can take advantage of. For major events, Betfred will almost🌠 always offer price boost — especially on big football matches, which means you can back teams that are often likely to win at a higher price.
How To Identify a Value Bet
If you see something as more likely than what the bookie's odds imply, you have perhaps identཧified a value bet. The following concepts will help you to determine this.
Implied Probability
A bookie’s odds always imply a certain probability.
For example, odds of 2.1 imply a probability of 47.62%.
True Odds
Bookie’s odds are based on their models, statistics, and more. They are usually good enough to make sure that they have a ♕good income, but are not always perfect.
Bookie’s odds are usually a good indication of the true odds of an event, but what the true odds really are can be h♚ard to calculate. As part of your betting strategy, you need to estimate what you think the true odds of an event are and compare🅘 them to the bookie’s.
Value Bets
The value of a bet is the difference between your estimation of the odds and implied probability, and the bookie’s odds and probabilities. You can express it in terms of probability or in 🅺odds.
Expected Value (EV)
Expected value is your average value over the course of multiple bets. It shows you♉ the edge you have on average over the bookmakers.
Value Betting Coin Toss Example
A coin to𝔍ss has only two 🅺outcomes: heads or tails.
In normal circumstances, the odds of the coin landing on heads or tails is 50%. If you have a fair bet on either option, you will get odds of 2.00 or 1/1. Now imagine if someon🌳e offered you odds of 2.20 to bet ⛎on heads. While there is still a risk of losing your money, you would almost be crazy not to take the bet.
Of course, the ideal situation would be if you could bet on it multiple times. You would also have to manage your bankroll. Betting your whole 𒀰wallet comes with a risk, since you still have a 45.45% chaꦬnce of losing.
The ideal would be to bet a small portion of your bankroll multiple times. T💃hat way, you will ultimately win more money than you lose.
TIP:
The Kelly Criterion has a formula that suggests how much of your bankroll to bet, depending on your estimation of value. To ease the maths, we created an online Kelly Criterion Calculator, which is free and easy to use!
What Is Gambling Value?
In sports betting, ꦺ;it is impossible to know the true odds. You can only use various methods to estimate what the true odds of an event are. If you c🍨an find a better method of estimating what the odds are than the bookies, you have found a way to predict the value in betting.
Value Football Betting Example
As with any sport, football is full of variables and it’s incredibly hard ꦬto ౠpredict outcomes. As a result, prop/statistics bets have become increasingly popular with bookies offering an array of such markets.
Bookies rely on data gathered from thousands of matches, which means their odds reflect average outcomes more than extreme ones. If a team is producing high numbers consistently for certain game statistics, such as corners or goals during a specific competition like the or Ch💮ampions League, bookies' odds often don’t reflect it.
Example
Theไre are an average of 13.2 corners in Manchester United Premier League matches this season, but the league’s average per game is just 10.71. So, if the bookie’s odds do not reflect the average corner collection in United matches. For instance, if a bookmaker offers over/under corner odds of 1.9 for over 12.5 corners, this would a good opportunity for value. How exactly to quantify the value can be difficult, but if you estimate it very likely that United will keep up their corner streak, you have a value bet.
Value Betting Horse Racing Example
Horse racing is another sport where looking forꦰ value is essential. Just like in any other sport, it is up to you to find where bookies are overestimating or underestimating the likelihood of any event.
Example
A horse has odds of winning set at 10/1, or 11.00 in decimal odds, giving you an implied probability of 9.09%. This may seem like an attractive bet — after all, betting £10 awards you £100 extra if you win. However💞, you believe that this horse is actually overvalued by the bookies and actually has a much smaller chance to win. Therefore, there is no value in the bet, and you should stay away from it.
How To Calculate Expected Value(EV) in Betting
There is a formula to calculate the value of your bet. Of co﷽urse, this calculation is only a reflection of your꧟ estimation of the true odds of the event — it is only as accurate as your own estimation.
Expected Value Betting Formula
You can e🉐asily calculate the v😼alue of your bet using the following formula:
Value = (Amount won per bet x probability of winning) – (Amount lost per bet x probability of losing)
Let's l🦹ook back at our football example from above and assume you bet £10 at the odds of 1.9. You give a conservative 60% chance that Team A will score more than 12.5 corners.
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Amount won per bet: £10 x 1.9 = 19 (bet times odds)
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Probability of winning: 60% or 0.6 (your estimated probability)
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Amount lost per bet: £10 (your bet amount)
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Probability of losing: 40% or 0.4
The Value of this bet is thus:(£19 x 60%) – (£10 x 40%) = £7.4
That means that you would win on average £7.4 for every £10 th🐻at you bet if you placed the same bet a multiple number of times. Of course, this is only if your analysis of the odds is correct. While we chose to use an extreme exampl🔜e, in real life, you would usually have a much smaller margin.
Expected Value & Variance
It is very important to look at your own expected value over the course of a large number of bets. Volume is essential. Once you know how much your results vary from your expected value, you can calculate your own variance and average expected value.
Over the course of hundreds or thousands of bets, your calculation will be more accurate. If you are a successful punter and place a large number of bets, you will gradually see your variance decreasing. Th♎is, of course, depends on your skills of predicting value bets.
Other Strategies To Find Value in Betting
Compiling and comparing bookie odds, which is what the two𝄹 of the software above do, is only one of the many ways to find value in betting. The following are the mo🍬st popular:
Developing Your Own Statistical Model
Bookies rely on all sorts of statistics, such as league averages, player averages, and team averages to create statistical models. They use methods like Poisson distribution and normal distribution to calculate how likely an event is. Needless to say, nothing is to stop you from coming up with your own models.
Ratings Systems
Ratings systems are used for seeding in tournaments, such as chess, tennis, and football. Elo ratings, in particular, are some of the most commonly used. Feel free to use available rating systems, or create your own to calculate the relative strength of a team or player.
Tipsters
Tipsters are often retired punters who are banned by the bookies for winning too much. They now sell their knowledge to anyone who is willing to pay. Of course, you need to know the difference between tipsters 🐻and fraudsters.
TIP:
The best way to do this is to look at their history of bets and see if they can prove an ROI based on their tips.
Comparing Odds
This is the easiest and most obvious strategy. If you have an account at multiple bookies and one bookie offers better odds than another does, you 𓆉have proven value for a bet. We suggest comparing odds to get the best deal.
In-Play Value Betting
In-play betting has a huge opportunity for value. A team or player could be getting beat for a while before it is reflected ♈in the odds.♚ Finding value is all about timing.
Example
In MMA, before the fight, fighter A is a heavy favourite at 1.38, Fighter B is the underdog at 3.25. In the first minute of the fight, Fighter B scores a knockdown. The odds will change in almost real time. However, fighter B will still be an under♓dog, now perhaps at 2.80. You now have fighter A who is rocked, wobbled, possibly hurt, and for some reason is still a hot favourite. This is a good time to bet on fighter B.
As you can see, this is a good strategy for finding value and you can apply it to almost any sport. Another advantage is that you can bet against yourself or cash out your bet if things are not goin💝g your way.
ThePuntersPage Final Say
Finding value is the most important part of sports betting as you need to ensure that you are making money over the course of thousands of bets. There is no guarantee you will win every bet unless you use arbitrage betting, and such opportunities are few and far between. Value bets 🌌are your best choice.
As long as you are able to identify value in bets consistently (whatever your strategy for doing that is), you are likely to beat the bookies. Keep in mind that you will need to place smaller bets — usually less than 5% o✤f your bankroll. If you can get an ROI of 2.5% or more, you are on your ൲way to becoming a professional punter.
FAQs
You can easily calculate the value of your bet using the following formula: Value = (Amount won per bet x probability of winning) – (Amount lost per bet x probability of losing) This calculation depends on✅ your estimation of the probability of winning and offers no guarantees.
Odds let you know how likely a team is to win — they carry implied probability. For example, odds of 3.0 or 2/1 offer an implied probability 📖of 33.3%. That means the odds of winning are 1 in 3.
To win a bet every time, you need to use arbitrage betting. Arbs are a way to bet against yourself and still win. If two bookies see the same team as an underdog and a favourite respectively, you can 🌱bet with both and still make a profit. RebelBetting (see above) offers arbing software, which detects arbitrage bets from online bookies across the world.
Simply put, a value bet is one 🅷🎶where the likelihood of a given outcome is higher than the odds offered by the bookmaker reflect.
While there’s 🍰no guaran🍌tee of winning every supposed ‘value bet’, you’re more likely to earn a profit in the long haul by placing such bets.
Value bets are much more common and le🍬ss time ♓consuming than arbitrage bets. These ‘sure bets’ supposedly guarantee success, even if the profits are small, while value bets don’t guarantee profits.
It’s always worth comparing the odds of bookmakers to see which feature the best odds for particular events / markets. It’s also worth using Trademate and RebelBetting to identify value bet༒s.